A territorial fire vulnerability model for Mediterranean ecosystems in South America

a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Fire risk Risk map Danger Damage potential Urban–wildland interface zone A forest fire risk model was designed and applied to a South American Mediterranean ecosystem, taking into consideration three analysis groups: fire risk; danger of fire spread, or propagation; and damage potential over economic threat values. The study area for development and validation of the model was the Mediterranean zone of central Chile and employed data from historical records spanning a 14 year period (1997–2010). Territorial data layers, combined with analysis of the statistical database and wildfire simulation have enabled areas of highest vulnerability to be defined with greater precision, especially in sectors associated with the urban–wildland interface (defined as the zone where man-made structures meet wildland). Maps generated by this model have enabled improvements to be made to the traditional mapping of fires currently undertaken in South American countries. The results shown here are applicable to other Mediterranean areas, where modifications are made to the entrance variables in the risk model. Forest fires constitute an increasingly complex problem due to the severe social and environmental impacts they produce, more so when residential areas and sectors of the urban–wildland interface zone are compromised, through destruction of housing and the impact on inhabitants , with repercussions and disasters of an unimaginable scale. For example, in the United States, more than 900 homes on average are destroyed each year, as a result of fires in urban interface areas, according to statistics dating back to 1990 (IBHS 2004). In Chile, the problem is concentrated mainly in the municipalities of Valparaiso and Viňa del Mar, situated on the coast of the V region of Chile. This region is characterized by higher incidences of forest fires in densely populated areas and where in the last 40 years, despite the extensive efforts of state bodies responsible for protection and control , a high number of homes destroyed by fire and the subsequent damage to inhabitants, including loss of life, are noted each year. In other countries such as Australia, estimations of human loss have already risen (Ashe et al., 2007), which when added to other loss indicators make it possible to measure the size of fire disasters. In all cases where fire may break out, protection mechanisms must be given maximum priority in order to suppress damage and potential effects caused by fire spread …